1 Unit FREE PLAY on Heat/Celtics OVER 203.5

This total has been adjusted down too much.  The total was 225 in each of the final two regular season meetings and 210 in Game 1 of this series.  The Celtics and Heat combined for 208 points in Game 1, and should safely eclipse this 203.5-point total in Game 2.  The Heat have a little more flow to their offense with Tyler Herro running the point and not having to bog down and go through Jimmy Butler in isolation.  But not having Butler makes them much worse off defensively.  I think the Heat can score enough, but they just won't be able to stop the Celtics, who can get whatever they want against this current version of Miami.  Give me the OVER.

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Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: New York Mets +116

Blake Snell got off to a rough start last season for the Padres as well.  He signed late with the Giants and is behind the eight ball again this season.  Snell is 0-3 with an 11.57 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in three starts, allowing 15 earned runs and 23 base runners in 11 2/3 innings.

I've been impressed with Sean Manaea this season.  He had one bad start against the Royals, but the other three were brilliant. He shut out the Tigers in 6 innings, allowed one run in 5 innings to the Reds and 2 runs in 5 innings to the Dodgers.  Manaea is 3-3 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Giants.

I like the spot for the Mets coming off three consecutive losses and looking to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two to the Giants.  They had won six straight prior to this skid.  Snell's teams are 0-7 (-8.4 Units) in his last seven April starts.  Bet the Mets Wednesday.

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1* Free Pick on Tigers

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

1* MLB - Brewers/Pirates Free Pick on Brewers +105

Dave's Wednesday Free Play:

1* on Cincinnati Reds -130

The Key: The Philadelphia Phillies are without their best hitter in Bryce Harper right now. They lost 8-1 to the Reds yesterday and had their 7-game winning streak snapped.  A lot of times teams have a hangover effect after getting a winning streak snapped.  Spencer Turnbull has had an easy schedule of opponents this year which is a big reason he has such great numbers for the Phillies.  He is due some regression.  Nick Lodolo has been great for the Reds at 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 2 starts with 16 strikeouts in 12 innings.  Lodolo is 1-0 with a 2.2 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts against the Phillies.  The Reds are scoring 5.5 RPG against righties while the Phillies are scoring 3.7 RPG against lefties this year.  Take Cincinnati.

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1* Free Wiseguy Play on Orioles

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

1* Best Bet on Astros

No analysis provided.